Voters in Reno and Washoe decided who will represent them in Congress, statewide offices, the Legislature, county government, and city halls and there were some surprises.
The November 3 election produced some surprising results in Reno, Washoe County, and across Nevada. Some races unfolded as expected, while others defied conventional political wisdom. Incumbency, name recognition, campaign spending, endorsements, and candidate qualifications did not always translate into the expected results.
I spent considerable time following the local campaigns, talking with candidates, reviewing campaign literature, and analyzing campaign momentum through advertising, flyers, and signs. I published numerous articles about the candidates and offered my predictions before Election Day. Some proved accurate, while others missed the mark. The biggest upsets were with Nevada CD-2 and the Governor’s race.
Kate Marshall’s commanding lead in the Reno mayoral race was no surprise; however, Eddie Gomez’s win over incumbent Meghan Ebert in Ward 4, Brian Wadsworth’s win over Rob Pierce in Washoe District 5, and Marie Rodriguez’s win over Jon Killoran in Washoe District 2 and Angela Gianoli’s overwhelming advantage over challenger Jenny Hubach in Municipal Court Judge were surprises.
I had expected incumbents to perform better, particularly in races where polling and other indicators suggested close contests. I had focused primarily on candidates, their campaigns, advertising, endorsements, and local political dynamics.
What I underestimated was how the broader national political environment affected Nevada races. Dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, immigration enforcement controversies, the impact of the Iran war on gas prices, and tariffs on general inflation influenced local races, making them a referendum on national Republican policies rather than evaluations of the individual candidates on the ballot.
Another lesson may be the difference between politically engaged voters and the broader electorate. Report readers follow local government and political controversies closely. Many voters, however, may make decisions based on familiar considerations, including party affiliation, name recognition, personal impressions, campaign advertising, or the Trump Effect.
Here’s my first article: My Predictions for the Election on Tuesday
You can look up the results here: Silver State Election, Nevada State Elections
In this article, I’ll examine how the major races turned out, and consider what the outcomes tell us about the political landscape in Reno and Washoe County.
How the Election Went: There Were Some Upsets
Federal and Statewide Offices
U.S. House, District 2 - Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D)
I thought this one could go either way. David Flippo was endorsed by Trump and identified as MAGA. He had the most Trump Effect. People called him a carpetbagger who had just moved to Reno. He got himself tied up in the stolen valor controversy and attacked James Settlemeyer with misinformation. He had endorsements from far-right political organizations, which didn’t help to win Independents, but the strangest endorsement was Elizabeth Helgelien. It took a lot for Flippo to overcome a 70,000-vote advantage, but he managed it. My reader survey predicted this seat flip.
Link: The Settelmeyer Attack List: Real Votes, Campaign Shorthand, and a Lot of Spin
Link: David Flippo’s Bizarre Endorser, Elizabeth Helgelien, a scandal-ridden hack
Link: Nevada’s CD-2: Republicans Won the Primary, But the General Election May Be Harder
Nevada Governor - Aaron Ford (D)
This is another one where the Trump Effect played a part. The increasing cost of living was a major issue in the election. Lombardo was effectively tied to Trump policies in attack ads, seen as responsible for inflation and linked to the ICE raids, and he was also criticized for his many vetoes. A problem with his campaign emails was that he kept begging for money instead of making the case for voting for him based on his record. Despite raising about $15 million, Lombardo still lost.
Lieutenant Governor - Sandra Jauregui (D)
Jauregui had stronger fundraising and name recognition from the Assembly. Still, Stavros Anthony had the incumbent advantage, which didn’t help him because he was tied to Lombardo, who was tied to Trump, and both suffered from the Trump Effect.
Secretary of State - Cisco Aguilar (D)
Aguilar protected his incumbency against Jim Marchant as predicted.
Attorney General - Nicole Cannizzaro (D)
Cannizzaro beat Adriana Guzmán-Fralick, as predicted.
State Treasurer - Tya Mathis-Coleman (D)
Coleman beat Drew Johnson, as predicted.
Nevada Legislature
State Senate, District 16 - Lisa Krasner (R)
Krasner held onto the incumbent advantage against Chrystal Roll, as predicted.
Assembly, District 25 - Selena La Rue Hatch (D)
Hatch held onto the incumbent advantage against Michael Ginsberg, as predicted.
Assembly, District 27 - Heather Goulding (D)
Goulding held the incumbent advantage against Veronica Tamatini (R), as predicted.
Assembly, District 30 - Natha Anderson (D)
Anderson held the incumbent advantage against Trista Gomez (R), as predicted.
Assembly, District 31 - Jill Dickman (R) - Neal Schwartz (D)
Dickman held the incumbent advantage against Neal Schwartz (D), as predicted.
Washoe County Government
County Commission, District 2 - Marie Rodriguez (D)
Despite being unknown and the mother of Joe Rodriguez, who was involved in a scandal, Marie Rodriguez pulled an upset in a Republican District that Mike Clark lost, over media personality Jon Killoran (R), with help from Devon Reese and Miguel Martinez, who could organize support and campaign operations using their resources.
Link: The Political Coalition Behind Marie Rodriguez and Washoe District 2 Commissioner
County Commission, District 3 - Mariluz Garcia (D)
Garcia held the incumbent advantage against Troy Regas (R), as predicted.
County Commission, District 5 Brian Wadsworth (D)
Wadsworth (D) came out of nowhere to beat Rob Pierce (R), who has served on county boards and been involved in politics for decades, in a Republican District.
Link: Rob Pierce: The Volunteer Who Says He's Ready for Washoe County Commission District 5
Washoe County School Board
Trustee, District F, At-Large - Sheena Harvey
Harvey prevailed against Brooke Westlake as predicted, benefiting from union endorsements.
Reno Municipal Elections
Reno Mayor - Kate Marshall
My reader surveys showed Marshall far ahead of Kathleen Taylor, and Reno voters showed dissatisfaction with Taylor’s ties to developers and votes on data centers, giving Marshall a large-margin win. The attack ads didn’t help. Reno voters are looking for change.
Link: Kathleen Taylor Shifted to Television Attack Ads And Kate Marshall Responded
City Council, Ward 2 - Matt Johnson
Reader surveys showed this one as close, but it looks like Vaupel’s voters went to Johnson, and voters rejected the “far left” framing. At the same time, Pellett was tied to developers because she operates a construction company, and there is large sentiment against developers in Reno.
Link: Reno Ward 2: Pellett and Johnson Differ on Issues, but is one ‘Far Left’?
Reno City Council, Ward 4 - Eddie Gomez
Despite being new to politics and facing numerous issues, Eddie Gomez unseated incumbent Megan Ebert. People tell me that he gave away over a thousand tacos from his restaurant at meet-and-greet events. Apparently, he is well known in the neighborhood, and voters are ready for change. Devon Reese and Miquel Martinez helped him by organizing support and campaign operations using their resources.
Link: Eddie Gomez, an Unusual Reno Ward 4 Challenger with an Odd Alliance.
Sparks Municipal Elections
Sparks Mayor - Wendi Rawson
City Council, Ward 2 - Jamie O’Connell
Dissatisfaction with incumbents came through, and unknown challengers beat incumbent Mayor Ed Lawson and Ward 2 council member Dian Vanderwell.
Reno Municipal Court
Reno Municipal Court - Angela Gianoli
Readers expressed dissatisfaction with the court and the desire for reform, and surveys showed Hubach ahead of Gianoli, but she still won, possibly due to union endorsements. While readers felt that the Muni Court needs reform, the broader electorate may not be as aware of the issues and voted for the more visible candidate.
Link: Reno Municipal Court at a Crossroads: It’s Time for Reform
What Issues Drove the Change?
The big issues for local voters were the cost of living, including gas prices, housing affordability, and inflation, as well as distrust of developers, over the building of data centers, and pervasive Flock cameras. Many voters were dissatisfied with incumbent politicians and political factions, which helped drive the upsets.
The Trump Effect and a low Republican turnout were difficult to anticipate accurately. But the biggest issue for Republicans in Northern Nevada isGOP'sWashoe GOP's poor judgment in supporting David Flippo, which I called out in early June.
The Washoe GOP decided to align with national MAGA issues instead of focusing on local politics. They ran purity tests for candidates, expelled members, and backed repeat loser Eddie Lorton instead of councilmember Kathleen Taylor.
Link: The Nevada GOP Divide: Factions, Tactics, and the Battle for CD‑02
Link: Bruce Parks Turned a Party on Itself, and Danny Tarkanian Challenged Him
How Accurate Were My Predictions?
I made selections in 19 competitive races. 9 turned out as predicted; 6 that I thought could go either way went the other way; and 4 were unexpected upsets. Election forecasts are easy to make and difficult to get right. What do you think?
Do you have a story to tell? Write to me at: mike@mikesrenoreport.com
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