Election Day is Nov. 3, and voters in Reno and Washoe will decide who will represent them in Congress, statewide offices, the Legislature, county government, and city halls.
I’ve reviewed the candidates and made predictions for several races, focusing on Reno, Sparks, and Washoe County, with a few statewide races.
These are not endorsements or scientific forecasts. Some races are not included because I haven’t followed them closely enough to make a prediction.
My selections are based on what I observe, such as incumbency, relevant experience, campaign momentum, voter sentiment, endorsements, and name recognition.
Below are my predictions, along with the offices being contested and the opposing candidates.
Listings are in the format: Office - Winner - Opponent.
Federal and Statewide Offices
U.S. House, District 2 - David Flippo (R) - Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D)
This race could be close due to the persistent controversy surrounding Flippo.
Nevada Governor - Joe Lombardo (R) - Aaron Ford (D)
Some polls show this one being close, but Lombardo has the incumbent advantage, and Ford has the travel scandal.
Lieutenant Governor - Stavros Anthony (R) - Sandra Jauregui (D)
Jauregui has stronger fundraising and has name recognition from the Assembly, but Anthony has the incumbent advantage.
Secretary of State - Cisco Aguilar (D) - Jim Marchant (R)
Aguilar has the incumbency, and Marchant, while known, isn’t doing much campaigning.
Attorney General - Nicole Cannizzaro (D) - Adriana Guzmán Fralick (R)
Cannizzaro has name recognition from the Legislature. She is the wife of Nathan Ring from Reese, Ring, Velto, where Devon Reese is a principal. Guzmán’s campaign has been fairly low-key.
State Treasurer - Tya Mathis-Coleman (D) - Drew Johnson (R)
Coleman appears to have a slight advantage.
Nevada Legislature
State Senate, District 16 - Lisa Krasner (R) - Chrystal Roll (D)
Despite being called out for inaction by Chuck Muth, Krasner seems to still hold the incumbent advantage, and Roll is unknown.
Assembly, District 25 - Selena La Rue Hatch (D) - Michael Ginsberg (R)
Ginsberg is making a strong showing, and many see Hatch as extreme, but she has the incumbent advantage, and Ginsberg has lost before.
Assembly, District 27 - Heather Goulding (D) - Veronica Tamatini (R)
Assembly, District 30 - Natha Anderson (D) - Trista Gomez (R)
Assembly, District 31 - Jill Dickman (R) - Neal Schwartz (D)
These challengers are unknown and had limited campaigns.
Washoe County government
County Commission, District 2 - Jon Killoran (R) - Marie Rodriguez (D)
County Commission, District 3 - Mariluz Garcia (D) - Troy Regas (R)
County Commission, District 5 - Rob Pierce (R) - Brian Wadsworth (D)
I expect these picks to win comfortably, although Regas made a good showing.
Washoe County School Board
Trustee, District F, At-Large - Sheena Harvey - Brooke Westlake
This race could be close, but Harvey has more endorsements.
Reno Municipal Elections
Reno Mayor - Kate Marshall - Kathleen Taylor
My reader surveys show Marshall far ahead of Taylor, and Reno voters express dissatisfaction with the current council.
City Council, Ward 2 - Summer Pellett - Matt Johnson
This race depends on how Vaupel’s voters split, and I expect more to go to Johnson, but Pellett has campaigned a lot recently, so it could be close.
Reno City Council, Ward 4 - Meghan Ebert - Eddie Gomez
Ebert is the incumbent with a solid base, while Gomez is unknown and has issues that have made the news.
Sparks Municipal Elections
Sparks Mayor - Ed Lawson - Wendi Rawson
City Council, Ward 2 - Dian VanderWell - Jamie O’Connell
Sparks is showing dissatisfaction with incumbents, so these races could be close, but the challengers are not well known.
Reno Courts
2nd Judicial District Court Dept. 1 - Joe Gorman - Derek Dreiling
Reno Municipal Court - Jenny Hubach - Angela Gianoli
My reader survey shows Hubach ahead of Gianoli.
Candidates Running Unopposed
Assembly, District 24 - Erica Roth (D)
Assembly, District 28 - Rubin D’Silva (D)
Assembly, District 36 - John Penn Junejo (D)
Washoe County District Attorney - Wes Duncan (R)
Washoe County Treasurer - Justin Taylor (R)
Washoe County Sheriff - Darin Balaam
Sparks City Council, Ward 4 - Adam Mayberry
We’ll See How Accurate My Predictions Are
I’ve made selections in 19 competitive races and identified seven unopposed candidates.
My predictions include Republicans, Democrats, and candidates running for nonpartisan offices.
Election forecasts are easy to make and difficult to get right. Once the election results are certified, I’ll revisit this list and see how many I got right and how many I got wrong.
The voters will have the final word on November 3.
Do you have a story to tell? Write to me at: mike@mikesrenoreport.com
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