Observations from the Primary on June 9th
Here are my observations on some of the races that stand out from the primary.
Jun 10, 2026
The June 9 primary gave us a first look at where Northern Nevada voters are heading in 2026. Some races followed the expected path, while others were upsets. I made my picks based on campaign momentum, voter engagement, public visibility, conversations, mailers, texts, signs, social media, and funding. I got most of them right, but the upset races are important because they tell us what voters are thinking.
Click to see voting results, https://silverstateelection.nv.gov/NVOther/
Which Candidates Will Get Through the Primary on June 9th? - Updated
In this article, I made my predictions. Today’s article is an update.
Congressional District 2 - an Upset
I picked Settelmeyer because of his long history of government service in Northern Nevada, but Flippo won the Republican primary with MAGA GOP backing.
Flippo certainly had a lot of money behind him. Despite the GOP endorsements, I think Flippo won because people didn't understand the attack list against Settelmeyer.
The Settelmeyer Attack List: Real Votes, Campaign Shorthand, and a Lot of Spin
Teresa Benitez-Thompson won the Democratic nomination, so I got that one right, and we don’t have to hear from Gregg Kidd anymore. My condolences to the Democratic also-rans, including my cousin Kathy Leonard Durham.
The Race Changed: What Benitez-Thompson’s Entry Means for Greg Kidd
Nevada Governor - a Surprise Showing
Lombardo won the republican primary, and Ford won the Democratic vote, so I got this one right, but it was expected.
I’m surprised that Alexis Hill got 21% of the Democratic vote. No one has gone from a local office to being the Governor, and this was a surprising showing.
Running for Governor in Northern Nevada: A Lesson for Washoe Contenders
Senate District 16 - an Upset
I picked Monica Jaye, but Lisa Krasner won. Lisa is the incumbent, and incumbents usually win. I took a flyer on Monica since many people are unhappy with Krasner’s vote on the Hollywood tax deal, and she has been considered out of touch by some.
I knew Monica would be a risk, given the controversy surrounding her radio show, and Monica didn’t make it happen, even with help from long-time political consultant Chuck Muth, who mailed an attack piece on Krasner instead of promoting Monica.
Monica Jaye Stabbert: The Candidate Challenging Nevada’s Republican Establishment
Reno Mayor - a Win
Both Taylor and Marshall won their primaries, so I got this one right. I’m pleased to see that Reese and Lorton are out of the race.
The fact that Kate Marshall is so far ahead shows that Reno wants change.
The Case for Kate Marshall: Why Reno Needs Change in the Mayor’s Office
Reese had a truly terrible showing. I consider this to be a vote of no confidence. He should resign from the city council, as it seems people are done with his bad behavior.
When Claims are Political Fiction: The Case of Devon Reese's “5th‑Generation Nevadan” Claim
I’m surprised that Lorton did as well as he did, but he still takes the prize as a 5-time loser, a record that he will probably hold for a long time.
How Eddie Lorton Funds His Campaigns and Why He Never Wins
Washoe County District 2 - an Upset
I picked Mike Clark, but I said that this one was wobbling. Clark was on the attack too much and talked too little about his accomplishments and what he would do.
Clark should have won, but I said that Clark had considerable opposition from Killoran’s camp, and that was right. Clark got bad advice, but not from me.
Clark vs. Killoran: A Debate That Captured Washoe County’s District 2 Divide
Washoe DA - a Win
I didn’t predict the Washoe DA race as it looked very close. I did write 5 articles about how Chris Hicks's charging guidelines led to criminals not being charged and going on to commit repeat crimes, so I’m pleased to see that Wes Duncan has won.
How Chris Hicks’ Charging Guidelines Broke Washoe County’s Justice System
Summary
The June 9 primary showed that endorsements, money, name recognition, and campaign energy all matter, but none of them guarantee victory.
I got most of my picks right, but the upsets are the races worth studying because they show where the political ground is shifting.
The general election will now come down to which candidates can move beyond primary voters, speak to the broader public, and make a convincing case that they understand the real issues facing Northern Nevada.
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