Nevada’s CD-2: Republicans Won the Primary, But the General Election May Be Harder
For more than forty years, Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District has been one of the safest Republican seats in the West but that may change in November. Here's why.
Jun 16, 2026
For more than forty years, Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District has been one of the safest Republican seats in the West.
That history is why the retirement of Congressman Mark Amodei created one of the most closely watched races in Nevada politics. For the first time in nearly two decades, Northern Nevada voters would choose a new representative for Congress.
The Republican primary became a battle between two different visions of the Republican Party: Northern Nevada-aligned and National Party-aligned.
Former State Senator James Settelmeyer represented the traditional Northern Nevada Republican model. He had decades of legislative experience, deep local roots, and a reputation for working within government to achieve results. He had endorsements from Governor Joe Lombardo and Congressman Mark Amodei.
David Flippo represented something different. A retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, businessman, and political outsider, who moved to Reno after Amodei announced his retirement. Flippo campaigned as an America First conservative closely aligned with President Donald Trump and the national MAGA movement. Trump endorsed Flippo in the final weeks of the race, providing a major boost to his campaign.
On June 9, Republican voters chose Flippo as their nominee, demonstrating once again that Trump’s influence within Republican primaries remains powerful. Yet after the election, the most interesting comments came not from Flippo’s supporters but from the man he hopes to replace, Mark Amodei.
Amodei’s Warning
Congressman Mark Amodei publicly acknowledged Settelmeyer’s defeat but also issued a warning that surprised many political observers.
Amodei noted that no Republican candidate received a majority in the primary and argued that the Democratic nominee enters the general election in a stronger position than many Republicans assume.
He went further, suggesting that Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District is no longer the automatic Republican victory it once was.
That statement is significant. No one understands the district better than Amodei. He has represented it in Congress since 2011. His concern appears to center on changing political realities.
Republicans remain the largest voter registration bloc in CD-2, but they no longer constitute an outright majority. Victory increasingly depends on independents and moderate voters, particularly in Washoe County.
The question facing Flippo is whether the coalition that won him a Republican primary can also win a general election.
Washoe GOP supporters for Flippo include Jeanne Herman (Washoe District 5 commissioner), Joey Gilbert (former candidate for Governor), David Chamberlain (social media manager for Mike Clark), Bruce Parks (Washoe GOP Chairman ), Malachi Southerland (TPUSA organizer), and others posing here with David Flippo.
Who Is David Flippo?
Flippo presents himself as a military leader and conservative reformer. His campaign emphasizes a 24-year Air Force career during which he commanded more than 1,000 airmen and helped establish operational bases in Iraq.
He describes himself as a Christian, father, grandfather, businessman, and America First conservative. Link: Lt. Col. David Flippo.
His platform centers on:
Border security
Energy independence
Tax reductions
Limited government
Election integrity measures
Regulatory reform
Strong national defense
These themes closely mirror the national Republican platform associated with President Trump. Throughout the campaign, Flippo argued that Washington needs outsiders rather than career politicians. That message resonated with Republican primary voters seeking a candidate closely aligned with the national conservative movement.
The Nevada GOP Divide: Factions, Tactics, and the Battle for CD‑02
Here, I wrote about the divide between Flippo and Settelmeyer in the Washoe GOP.
The Experience Question
The central debate in the Republican primary became a choice between Northern Nevada experience and outsider credentials aligned with National issues.
Settelmeyer emphasized his decades of legislative service and understanding of Nevada issues.
Flippo emphasized military leadership and the need for new voices in Washington.
That distinction matters because Congress is fundamentally a legislative institution.
Military commanders issue orders. Legislators build coalitions, negotiate compromises, and assemble majorities.
Many Northern Nevada Republicans viewed Settelmeyer’s legislative experience as an advantage.
Some Republican primary voters viewed that same experience as evidence that it was time for a change.
The Settelmeyer Attack List: Real Votes, Campaign Shorthand, and a Lot of Spin
I speculated that the widely circulated attack list against Settelmeyer on social media contributed to Flippo's win.
The General Election Challenge
Historically, Republicans enjoy a significant registration advantage in CD-2. The district includes most of Northern Nevada and has remained Republican through both favorable and unfavorable national political environments.
However, Democrats believe Flippo’s nomination gives them an opportunity. Their nominee, Teresa Benitez-Thompson, enters the race with extensive legislative experience and a long history in Nevada politics.
Democrats hope that moderate voters, independents, and suburban Washoe County voters who may be uncomfortable with highly partisan national politics will give her a closer look.
The district still leans Republican, and Republicans hold a substantial registration advantage. But Amodei’s comments suggest that longtime Republican leaders no longer view the seat as completely secure.
Northern Nevada’s Identity Crisis
The CD-2 primary also revealed a broader struggle within Nevada Republican politics. For decades, Northern Nevada Republicans were represented by figures such as Dean Heller, Brian Sandoval, and Mark Amodei.
While conservative, they generally campaigned as pragmatic problem-solvers focused on governing.
Flippo’s victory reflects the growing influence of a different Republican coalition—one more closely aligned with national conservative movements, Trump-style politics, and outsider candidates.
The primary demonstrated which faction currently dominates Republican voter turnout. November will reveal whether that coalition is large enough to win over the broader electorate.
What Happens Next?
When the outgoing Republican congressman warns that his own district is no longer guaranteed Republican territory, voters should pay attention.
The primary answered one question: who Republicans want to represent them.
The general election will answer a different question: whether the candidate Republican primary voters selected is also the candidate Northern Nevada voters want to send to Washington.
For the first time in many years, that outcome appears less certain than many expected. Some people think that Democrat Teresa Benetiz-Thompson has a better chance of winning against Flippo than against Settelmeyer.
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