Reno’s Economic Reality Check: Jeremy Aguero’s Blueprint for Fiscal Resilience
Economist Jeremy Aguero delivered a sobering yet practical roadmap for Reno’s fiscal future, tackling income inequality, housing costs, debt burdens, and the urgent need for more innovative governance
Oct 30, 2025
A Sobering Look at Reno’s Fiscal Future
Economist Jeremy Aguero delivered one of the most consequential presentations in recent Reno City Council history on October 29, 2025. This wide-ranging economic analysis doubled as a reality check for both city leaders and residents.
Aguero made clear that while the U.S. economy remains strong on paper, with record-high GDP and continued investment, Reno faces a more challenging path: widening income inequality, mounting household debt, and a cost of living now 3% higher than the national average.
“My presentation is not a report card,” Aguero said. “It’s a foundation for the work ahead.”
Here is the recording of the October 29, 2025, City Council meeting. The presentation by Jeremy Aguero starts at minute 16.
The National Picture: Growth with Fragile Confidence
Across the nation, growth persists — but so does anxiety.
Inflation has eased somewhat, but still acts as a “regressive tax,” disproportionately hurting younger and lower-income households.
Consumer confidence remains as low as it was during the Great Recession.
Only 40% of Americans can cover a $1,000 emergency expense.
Household wealth may total $160 trillion, but the top 10% hold two-thirds of it. The result: financial strain that trickles down to cities like Reno, where families are feeling the squeeze of higher housing and transportation costs.
Reno’s Local Economy: Strong Numbers, Weak Foundations
Aguero described Northern Nevada’s economy as “mostly positive” but showing signs of stress.
Taxable retail sales have started to decline.
Housing prices remain high and out of reach for most families with a median income.
Saving for a home now takes roughly 33 years at current rates.
The solution, Aguero argued, isn’t more subsidized housing; it’s higher-paying jobs, especially in healthcare and the trades. Economic diversification, he warned, means little without fiscal diversification to support it.
“Growth pays for growth in the short term,” he said, “but creates fiscal challenges in the long term.”
The Policy Gaps: Where Reno Must Adapt
Aguero didn’t mince words about Reno’s structural limitations. Under Nevada’s Dillon’s Rule, cities can only act where the state explicitly grants authority, making regional collaboration essential.
Among the top policy challenges he identified:
PERS liabilities that threaten long-term fiscal health.
Infrastructure funding gaps in transit, airports, and utilities.
A need to modernize government operations and shed “legacy structures” that no longer fit today’s city.
He also urged leaders to evaluate economic development incentives, such as tax increment financing (TIF), through a clear lens of fiscal and social return on investment, rather than just focusing on short-term growth.
Technology, AI, and the Future of Work
Aguero noted that technology and AI now account for approximately one-third of U.S. GDP growth. Yet he warned that innovation cuts both ways: automation may improve efficiency, but it can also deepen inequality and erode middle-class stability.
His message is that cities must invest in human capital — including workforce training, trade programs, and education — or risk being left behind.
“AI can improve government efficiency,” Aguero said, “but it should never replace human judgment.”
Fiscal Responsibility and “Good Government”
Aguero’s framework for “Good Government” rests on three pillars:
Fiscal Discipline: Balance budgets without one-time fixes. Maintain reserves and protect bond ratings.
Economic Policy: Support local businesses, encourage entrepreneurship (especially among Gen Z), and build resilience through public-private partnerships.
Service Quality: Focus on core functions — public safety, infrastructure, and community trust — with measurable outcomes for every taxpayer dollar.
Council Takeaways: The Road Ahead
Council members raised concerns about energy costs, food insecurity, and affordable housing, prompting Aguero to stress that many economic levers, such as interest rates and federal aid, are beyond local control. Still, he argued, Reno has agency where it matters: planning, partnerships, and prioritization.
He emphasized that quality of life is the ultimate metric. Clean streets, safe neighborhoods, and transparent budgeting aren’t just civic ideals — they’re economic advantages.
“Have a plan. Work the plan. Move it forward,” he concluded.
Final Thoughts: Reno’s Crossroads
Jeremy Aguero’s message wasn’t doom and gloom — it was a call for discipline and courage. Reno’s future, he implied, depends on whether its leaders can align economic ambition with fiscal realism.
If the city follows his blueprint — focusing on talent, efficiency, and transparency — it can thrive even amid national uncertainty. But if not, the same forces fueling today’s growth could quickly become tomorrow’s fiscal reckoning.
In this article, I have summarized Jeremy Aguero’s presentation. In a subsequent article, I will outline what the city council can do, what they cannot do, and how they must work with other agencies and governmental bodies to achieve results.